Betting on the Brits – …my FOREX-related story

A couple of years ago I was asked to cover a trading desk at a prestigious firm in London. What transpired in the first week was quite humorous, since neither party really knew the other all that well.

During one of our daily banters at lunch break, I asked one of their top traders if it was possible for a random freelance writer, like me, to become an expert Forex trader like him and his colleagues, …in say, less than two years time? They chuckled, but soon the question turned into a friendly wager between us. They were willing to teach me the art of their trade, if I agreed to stay in London for a few months longer. Without any hesitation, I agreed. What I failed to tell them, however, (since they never asked) was that aside from freelance writing, I was also a seasoned programmer with over 25 years experience.

For the next three months, I watched two top traders work the Forex markets masterfully. In the evenings I diligently programed what I had learned into a versatile algorithm. To keep up with the trading lingo, I poured over technical trading manuals, took copious notes on their many trading styles and strategies, and carefully observed their trading behavior under many different circumstances. After a few days in the trading room, I quickly learned how these circumstances could vary widely.

Each morning we met briefly to review global events and discuss trading opportunities. Every meeting derived a different outcome. For example, one morning interest rates moved up in Australia causing investors to dump Euros and buy Australian dollars. The ripple effect triggered a similar outflow in Emerging Markets whose respective currencies sometimes reacted with greater amplitude. Within seconds, my two mentors were skillfully working the South African Rand and the Turkish Lira using Gold as a potential hedge. The Euros that were sold earlier in the day were bought back, all at a precisely calculated, risk managed profit. Later that week, changing oil prices, commodity prices, invasions, trade disputes, earnings, GDP, non-farm payrolls, hedge funding currencies, political elections, and so many other factors including the prospects for a Grexit and Brexit, weighed in. In an unpredictable manner, each event contributed to an uncanny sense of ‘controlled mayhem’ in the trading room.

Despite the daily ensued chaos from the markets, these two cool cats maneuvered skillfully through the maze pinpointing with incredible accuracy, areas with high-probability arbitrages. Like the rails on a train track, their unflinching trading discipline was solid and consistent, day in and day out. They reminded me of two sturdy pillars standing firm against a fierce tornado. It was truly amazing to watch and absorb, not just for what it did for their trading results, but more for the many ways it could be applied to daily life decisions.

Perhaps, my greatest takeaway from the entire experience could be summed up as follows:

“Add clear thinking, risk management, and a disciplined approach to any
problem and the odds for a successful outcome can be greatly improved.”

Simple? Yes, but very difficult to achieve on a sustainable basis, at least for humans, but not so for a pair of fast computers and a cleverly written algorithm. What happened next surprised us both. See for yourself at http://www.ragingfx.com.

So, you might ask, who won the wager?

As it turned out, we both did. …because we had unwittingly hedged our respective bets! They taught me everything they knew, while in two years time, I created an amazing algo that digitized everything they had taught me!

© 2016 Tom Kadala

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Yes, You can NASA that!

When you need an address, a definition, or information about anything on earth, friends will tell you to ‘Google that’; however, what if your smart device or robot needed to look something up, considering they too have become a part of the ‘Internet of Things’? For them, ‘Googling that’ may help narrow some choices but the binary-like answers (yes or no) that futuristic devices will need to operate may have to come from another source altogether such as a ‘collaborative search engine’, driven and inspired by a half-a-century old institution, NASA. 

What is a ‘collaborative search engine’?

In short it is a search engine that by today’s standards is incomplete; not because a database is missing or links broken beyond repair, but because its primary source of information does not yet exist and is essentially pending discovery. Let me explain.  While Google has become the central source for all known data, (good, bad, and even ugly), NASA is emerging with an alternative search engine concept altogether. Instead of ‘crawling’ throughout the web to organize existing data the way Google algorithms do, NASA is organizing groups of talented individuals all over the world through virtual ‘Challenges’ to help it address a daunting list of unsolved problems whose collective contributions may one day make space travel as much of a business reality as airlines are today. Their global efforts will soon be centralized into a massive collection of ideas that will be in one way or another associated with NASA’s existing space data.

NASA’s Space Apps Challenges
These Space Apps Challenges, as they are called, are huge. Last year’s two-day global event, for example, broke the Guinness Book of World records for the largest ever ‘Hackathon’-like gathering with over 9,000 registered participants representing 484 organizations in 83 cities across 44 countries. At this year’s event, the number of attendees worldwide jumped above 10,000 and is expected to rise further as NASA continues to tap outside its walls for novel ideas, clever approaches, and outright brilliant breakthroughs all from cadres of scattered, talented, and unlikely groups of individuals.

This year one of their city events was held at AlleyNYC near Times Square located in the heart of New York City where a packed house of eager space aficionados of all ages, all walks of life, and every professional talent imaginable converged to inspire and get inspired. In a business-like manner, NASA’s Deputy CIO and CTO, Deborah Diaz, opened the event by presenting details of the institution’s tide-changing decision to post NASA’s gargantuan vaults of space data on the web at open.nasa.gov; …where anyone with an internet connection can access its vast contents freely. Experimental data from the International Space Station (ISS), weather data on Neptune, meteorite real-time positioning, GPS-landscape image coordinates on Mars and so much more are accessible for the connecting. NASA hopes its open-data policy will inspire groups to form organically as they often do at their Hackathons and address many of the institution’s pressing current and future challenges in space. On a side note, Diaz expressed her profound views that NASA’s open-source efforts could one day change the future of global democracies from one of ‘freedom-of-choice’ to one of ‘freedom-of-thought’.

NASA’s Challenges in Space
To help participants place space challenges into perspective, American test pilot mission specialist astronaut, Doug Wheelock, who logged 178 days on the Space Shuttle shared his views about space and space travel with participants during a press conference at the event. According to Wheelock, space is a brutally hostile environment that does not compare to anything on earth. To appreciate his perspective, imagine a place where the sun rises and sets 16 times every 24 hours, and every time the sun shines, materials such as the body of the space station or an astronaut’s spacesuit is subjected to temperatures exceeding 450 degrees Fahrenheit. When the sun sets, temperatures swing the other way dropping to 300 degrees Fahrenheit below zero. Radiation levels surrounding the space station are so high that despite the station’s thick walls, some of the 70+ laptops on board used to perform experiments may inadvertently ‘fry’. In a humble manner, Wheelock told a packed audience that NASA cannot continue its mission to Mars without the discovery of new materials that can withstand wide frequent temperature swings and intense radiation exposures over long periods of time.

Medical issues in space are another of NASA’s imperatives. Wheelock described issues with atrophy in the leg muscles, blurred vision, depression, and even loss of taste, all due to exposure to zero-gravity. Taken for granted on earth, gravity gives our legs purpose, our sight a level horizon to distinguish moving objects, our potential mood swings a sense of equilibrium, and even our mouth active taste buds. Our brains are wired to calibrate our bodily functions based on gravity levels. In a zero-gravity environment, for example, our legs become, essentially useless. In a defensive move, the brain will push blood away from the legs to the brain to allow for recalibration in a gravity-changed environment. Space station astronauts have learned to counter some of these physical anomalies by exercising their legs regularly with bungee cords, for example, but look to other sources for future discoveries and ideas on preventing potential blindness and automating cures for other unexpected and yet-to-be-encountered physical and psychological disorders and ailments.

Challenges in Space Travel
Then, there was the question about space travel; a question that just about any individual young or old would want to ask an astronaut. What is it really like lifting off from earth in the Space Shuttle, living at the International Space Station for months at a time, and taking a space walk? Here Wheelock did not disappoint.

In a candid and unreserved manner, Wheelock described the distinct noises he would hear while walking underneath the space shuttle prior to a launch. He spoke of the heaving and creaking of the massive rocket’s cylindrical shapes, which were brim-filled with liquid hydrogen. He also pointed to the constant clicking sound of the many valves used to control fuel flow. The area was in his own words, ‘its own climate’, with chunks of ice falling and water dripping off the sides surrounded by clouds of hydrogen escaping violently with high pitched hissing sounds. He gazed up at the rocket’s main nozzle knowing that at liftoff its center would reach 6,000 degrees or two-thirds of the temperature of the surface of the sun. Since no metal can withstand such high heat levels, NASA engineers designed a thickness sufficient to prevent the metal from melting completely before its final phase release. With sincere earnest, Wheelock turned to the audience once more and informed them that future space travel requires stronger and lighter materials that have yet to be discovered.

After liftoff a rocket will roll to one side to counter air dynamic forces caused by the shuttle’s stubby wings and to face its antennas toward earth. From the ground the roll looks smooth and orderly but inside, Wheelock admits, ‘it’s another world’. Once airborne the rocket rattles ‘like mad’. The G-forces he experienced are so great that reaching a switch on the controls overhead requires an immense physical effort. The vibrations and gyrations of this metallic beast forging its way against the will of nature causes the vessel to ‘rock all over’. At the earth’s orbital surface, the vessel switches to a liquid fuel and upon entering space reverts to Newtons second law of motion, a state when an object in motion will stay in motion. With a deep sigh of relief, the astronauts are finally cleared for space travel. Their vessel floats gingerly onward into the silence of space.

Inside the International Space Station, a new normal for life on board evolves quickly. Food is tasteless. The air in the station smells like the venting area of a power supply unit. The temperature is a comfortable 70 degrees and the prevailing noise of vents cooling laptops and other electronics hums at a familiar 60 MHz frequency level. The sleeping quarters are slightly quieter, while the exercise room tends to capture the smell of human sweat. Missing in the minds of the astronauts is the familiar earth scents of dirt and grass.

On the few occasions Wheelock ventured on space walks, he liked referring to the space drama film, Gravity  to illustrate his experiences. ‘It’s pretty accurate’, he said. Similar to one of the film’s most suspenseful scenes, Wheelock briefly described his own feelings when he had to release his safety cord attached to the station to complete an improvised maneuver.  For a brief moment as he pressed the button on a joy stick controlling the jet packs on his 300 pound suit (last designed in 1970), Wheelock recalls rotating around to a magnificent view of the earth with the space station out of sight. Images of 2001: A Space Odyssey flashed in my mind as he described his brief encounter of being ‘very alone in space’. With no GPS available to remotely control his automatic safe return to the station, Wheelock turned to the audience and again pointed at more areas where NASA needs help with new ideas and discoveries.

Historically NASA has always fed the industry pipeline for technological advancements. The incredible feats of lifting rockets, placing satellites into orbit, and landing humans on the moon have pushed the envelope on technological breakthroughs. The many derivative applications have created new industries, exciting careers, and a notable increase in global economic standards of living.

In an effort to address a proposed landing on Mars in the next 30 years, NASA is once again taking the lead on reinventing the future of data search engines to be developed by unlikely groups of global talent, fueled by NASA data, and created for machines to interact with other machines. Do not be surprised when, in the not-so-distant future, your friendly robot pauses during one of your voice commands to say, “Yes. I can NASA that?”

© 2014 Tom Kadala

Improving the Odds of Entrepreneurial Success by taking a closer look at MIT’s Eco-System

If you were sitting at a Las Vegas gambling table with a 3% chance of winning big, would you continue to play or fold? Guessing your likely response, then let’s compare this example with launching a startup company. Statistics show that 97% of startups fail after their fifth year of operations with nearly two-thirds in their first year. If your response was to fold at the Las Vegas gambling table, then why are so many institutions encouraging students to launch a new company when the data shows that the odds are severely stacked up against them?

As though these numbers were not discouraging enough, then there are the private equity firms who search through the rubble of startups with the hopes of selecting a winner. Their expectations are even more somber. Of the thousands of business plans reviewed per year, startup investment firms will fund on average 4 deals per year, knowing all along that 3 out of the 4 companies will either fail or break-even after their first year of operations.

So, one might ask, can anything be done to improve the odds of success for a typical startup?

Lab to Market
At universities the term ‘lab to market’ is used to describe the worn path that many young companies must endure to become successful. Their humble beginnings tell a familiar story where an unexpected mishap in a lab inadvertently inspired their startup. For some, the inspiration came from a personal experience, such as in the case of DropBox’s founder, Drew Houston, who got tired of using USB drives to move files from one computer to another. Had Drew not been inconvenienced enough times, DropBox may have evolved differently or not at all. The key to his success was not just his personal revelation and commitment, but also MIT’s established eco-system that was there when needed to grow his nascent idea into a global company. MIT’s contribution was so crucial that one might ask, if every entrepreneur had access to a similar eco-system as MIT offers, would the odds of success improve? Surprisingly, the answer is ‘not necessarily’.

Ideation
Just as moving ideas from lab to market are challenging, coming up with the ideas in the first place or ‘ideation’ requires an entirely new approach and discipline, one that MIT addresses today with the first-of-its-kind ‘proof-of-concept’ center known as the Deshpande Center for Technological Innovation – http://deshpande.mit.edu/.

Recently, I attended an awards reception to honor the 2013 winning teams who were approved for nearly $1m in grants. That evening the lobby of the Media Lab (where the event was held at MIT) was buzzing with sponsors, investors, students, faculty and other interested parties. Hoping to be discovered, the teams were on hand to display their progress and answer questions. Unlike a traditional startup competition that select the best business plans, this event focused on the teams with the best business ideas. Appreciating the difference between both ideas and plans is key. Ideation occurs primarily at the very beginning of the entrepreneurial process, while business plans that build upon proven ideas come later.

When Drew Houston stumbled upon his vision, DropBox was just an idea, an idea that could have easily slipped out of his mind had it not been for a timely injection of funds to nudge him along to help him prove his concept further. That nudge, that tap, that light push made all the difference. The timely urgency to nurture ideation at this very initial point in the entrepreneurial process was what inspired Gururaj “Desh” Deshpande and his wife, Jaishree, to donate $17.5 million to launch the Deshpande Center at MIT.

An Innovative Approach
At the reception I caught up with the founder, Desh, and asked him if he was pleased with the Center’s 10-year record of 110 funded projects with 28 successfully spun out companies. A successful entrepreneur himself, Desh seemed less interested in speaking about his Center’s extraordinary achievements than he was of the impact his Center had among the faculty and graduate students at MIT. To him the true value proposition of the Deshpande Center was less about granting awards to a select few and more on the number of applicants who applied. He felt that the Center’s application process forced researchers to view their work from an ‘idea to impact’ perspective, an approach, he felt, was uncommon among researchers. With his contagious smile, Desh boasted that it was not unusual for non-winning applicants to apply a second or third time.  Last year two such teams that despite not winning a grant from the Center, succeeded in launching their startups anyway. With a deep sense of pride, Desh relished the fact that his Center’s influence had achieved an equally positive impact with every applicant, regardless of who won a grant or not. Through his Center, Desh had created an ‘ideation culture’, one that is often ignored and yet intimately critical to the success of any startup/eco-system.

Surely the odds of entrepreneurial success should improve if more startups had access to established eco-systems, especially those that support ideation early on. But perhaps the lesson to be learned from MIT’s Deshpande Center’s story is less about funding ideation grants and more about giving entrepreneurs a second or even a third chance to prove their concept. Just think how many fantastic ideas are tossed aside and lost forever simply because a business or grant contest is designed to select only three winners?  …or the thousands of business plans tossed in the garbage of an overwhelmed angel investor? …or the business plans that are rejected because of an entrepreneur’s poor presentation skills? Imagine what would happen if one-quarter of the startups presented to a private equity investor were randomly awarded a Deshpande Center-like financial nudge for further proof of concept. Maybe then the odds of succeeding as an entrepreneur would truly improve.

© 2013 Tom Kadala

‘Systems Thinking’ – Your Next Competitive Edge!

Imagine for a moment that a friend followed you with a web cam and recorded every moment of your typical work day.  What could you learn from so much data?  Probably not much, unless you matched each video frame with a related task. Once you did, however, you could pinpoint areas for improvement by comparing your activities on video with the expected minimal requirements (time and money) to complete each task.

The clinical engineering term used to describe this comparative analysis is called ‘systems thinking’ where choices for a set of outcomes are optimized using benchmark data. For non-engineers, ‘systems thinking’ could be described as an exercise in time management or as an example of how a person should best maneuver while driving through rush hour traffic. Surprisingly, if you are not an engineer but know how to drive effectively in traffic, you may be more of an intuitive expert on ‘systems thinking’ than you realize.

So, what is ‘systems thinking’ and why should CEOs view it as their next competitive edge for years to come?  

At a recent conference on ‘Systems Thinking for Contemporary Challenges’ held at MIT, thought-leaders, CEOs, and entrepreneurs, (some representing various Fortune 100 companies), shared their thoughts and experiences. At first, I wondered why so much attention was being given to a decision-making process that appeared so intuitive. It was not until I realized that the clinical term, ‘systems thinking’ actually has two very different meanings.  One definition applies to how an individual must think to solve problems, while the other applies to how groups of individuals must think collectively to find solutions. Then it became obvious to me that the latter was the principal reason for the conference.

Another way to look at this important distinction is to split ‘systems thinking’ into two separate definitions, one for the individual within a company and the other for a group of integrated companies that work together on large projects.

Definition #1 – An Individual learns to think in terms of systems
The first definition focuses on an individual’s ability to use ‘systems thinking’ for self-improvement and measures the potential effects from a group of employees that improve at the same time.  For example, the web cam data exercise stated earlier would have given you a frame-by-frame glimpse of your daily routines and potentially exposed hidden areas for improvements. Now, imagine if everyone in your company analyzed their daily activities frame-by-frame too?  No doubt, the sum of their improvements would translate into a significant productivity boost for the entire company.

Definition #2 – A Group of Systems learn to think together
The second definition looks at how a group of companies can effectively work together as a ‘network of systems’ to complete huge complex projects such as the production of a fleet of fighter jets at Raytheon or the design of new wind turbines at GE.  As a fragmented bunch of contracted companies, these entities would find it impractical to use a web cam to video their collective daily activities the same way we proposed in Definition #1. Instead they would apply proven ‘systems thinking‘ tools and methodologies that are specifically designed to coordinate and optimize the collective efforts from multiple companies.

How ‘Systems Thinking’ Works…
‘Systems thinking’ begins by breaking down processes into their minimal components, even down to a molecular level, if need be. The data representing the flow of information from people, machines and business objectives are thrown into the same soup and mapped onto a Design Structure Matrix (DSM) that visually connects the dots among people, activities, priorities, and time tables. Even management is treated as just another series of systems and data points. Industry tools such as TRIZ and ANYLOGIC are commonly used to identify patterns and determine optimal interactions from one group or system with another. They also highlight critical path areas caused by any number of factors such as supply chain bottlenecks, limited use of shared resources, or a realignment of priorities.

When seen from close range, flaws and inefficiencies that were once hidden are suddenly exposed like a knitted fabric with a faulty stitch. When changes are implemented, the same ‘systems thinking’ methodology used to unearth the problem in the first place is ‘recycled’ and reassessed using more current data.

Looking Ahead…
If ‘systems thinking’ is something you feel that you have been doing all along but never knew that it had a name, you are not alone. Many professionals unwittingly apply the basic principles of ‘systems thinking’ to improve their time management at work or at home.  However, the ‘systems thinking’ discussed in Definition #2 goes much deeper. It evaluates companies as though they are systems operating within other systems and applies innovative methodologies that can spot hard-to-find problems or solutions.

Companies that already subscribe to ‘systems thinking’ ideas designate one person or team to offer company-wide recommendations, but past experiences have shown that a greater emphasis on a participatory effort from a wider range of individual inputs can be more effective, especially when it comes time to implement any changes. As the workplace becomes increasingly automated, an employee’s role will also change and require a better understanding of ‘systems thinking’. Companies would do well to invest in various levels of ‘systems thinking’ training for their entire workforce or hire employees who already have a degree or experience in ‘systems thinking’.

Not everyone needs to receive a graduate degree to get hired, of course, since as shown earlier, the majority of staff can be trained in ‘systems thinking’ at the individual level (see Definition #1). Management or specialize staff members, on the other hand, can opt for degree-level programs that use sophisticated tools to evaluate groups of systems (see Definition #2). Currently the number of institutions offering degrees in ‘systems thinking’ is limited, but as the demand for training is expected to increase in the coming years, many more options will become available.

MIT’s Masters Program
For those of you who are anxious to get started or are looking to realign their MBA degree should consider MIT’s System Design and Management Program (SDM), which offers a Master’s Degree in Engineering and Management.  This degree program is flexible with 13 to 24-month career-compatible options comprised of on-campus and live, synchronous, at-a distance classes.  Students work with their peers on problem sets that in many cases can be immediately applied to their existing companies. Many students who attend the program are sponsored by their company. Of course, you do not need to wait for your employer to sponsor you.  If the timing is right to advance your education, you might do better by taking your own initiative.   Aside from getting a leg up on this new and exciting trend,  you will also have much to gain personally, collectively, and professionally.

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– Appendix –

Client Case Studies using Systems Thinking to Improve Customer Satisfaction
As stated by one speaker, ‘systems thinking’ is a balance between science and art. To that description, I have arranged the following ‘systems thinking’ case-studies presented at the conference accordingly.

Science – using Machine Data
General Electric
At the event GE’s VP and GM for Technology and Sciences, Gary Mercer, spoke on behalf of GE’s Aviation Division.  Mercer explained how GE views its aircraft as magnets for collecting reams of machine data, to the tune of 18 million date points per month.  This data is used in various capacities to improve on aircraft design, manufacturing processes, and ultimately the passenger’s experience (in that order). Their software and analytics platforms also referred to as SAGE, allows GE’s 3,000 technologists to share the aircraft machine data and publish their ideas on a common platform.

John Deere
Another example came from a member of John Deere’s power systems team, Genevieve Flanagan.  Based on Flanagan’s ‘systems thinking’ analysis, John Deere inserted more probes in their tractors that would collect additional ‘machine data’ on a per customer basis. The ‘machine data’ is transmitted back to a central data bank for analysis and like GE is used to improve the product and customer experience.  Based on a set of algorithms, the data bank also alerts the user when maintenance such as an oil change is needed.  In this manner, the decision to change the oil or any other component is based on a client’s specific usage patterns rather than solely off a generic instrument reading such as the mileage from an odometer.

Art – understanding Client Needs
TIBCO Software
At the event TIBCO Software’s Executive VP of Global Field Operations, Murat Sönmez, cited two examples of how his company’s platform software allowed his clients to analyze their data to identify, design, and deploy ‘system thinking’, solutions dynamically.  His first example involved capturing profile data from Las Vegas gamblers for a client hotel. As soon as a guest would arrive at his client’s hotel, the hotel’s IT system would apply an algorithm that reviewed the guest’s past gambling experiences and established their most likely tolerance level for losing money.  Prior to reaching their threshold of ‘unhappiness’, the guest would receive a text with a special offer, such as a pair of show tickets. Appropriate staff members would be alerted instantly to ensure prompt delivery of the tickets and any other necessary amenities.

His other example involved preemptive measures taken for two major airline clients to minimize a passenger’s negative experiences during a luggage loss claim. Prior to landing, the airline’s systems would apply an algorithm that automatically communicated with a passenger via text and offered them instant remedies such as an approved check-in number at a hotel, a link to enter a delivery address once the luggage arrived, or a credit for purchases at a popular clothing store. In both examples large amounts of data had to be captured, analyzed, and acted upon involving numerous internal departments and partners, so that a one-remedy experience could be delivered to each guest/passenger in a timely manner.

To truly appreciate the value of ‘systems thinking’ from these two examples, imagine each client incident as a series of baton passes in an Olympic track relay.  Then, multiply this one event by thousands of different relays and baton passes where each relay represents one customer who must be treated according to their specific profile that is based upon the results generated from a dynamically, self-adjusting and self-correcting set of algorithms. Having all of these benefits perfectly determined, coordinated and delivered using the same staff as before and with minimal training requirements, if any, is an excellent testimony of the extraordinary capabilities from applying ‘systems thinking’.

CISCO Systems
Another example came from CISCO’s VP of Enterprise Smart Solution Engineering, Phil Sherburne.  Similar to the last example, CISCO learned that their customers had a 6 month threshold/tolerance for adopting new technologies and as a result adjusted both their R&D and engineering implementation processes to follow in tandem .

To continually fill the R&D pipeline with relevant projects, Sherburne used ‘system thinking’ analysis to discover missing links between his sales force and client’s needs.  The results favored a new type of sales force, one that he referred to as ‘honest brokers’ who would focus less on selling products by product line and more on solving client problems that included CISCO products.  Also in the works is a new video conferencing service that Sherburne hopes will further engage their clients into an ongoing solutions oriented conversation.

‘Big Data’ – Indigestion or Innovation?

With Facebook having recently logged in its billionth user, social networking has undoubtedly become the ultimate source for ‘Big Data’. Does the possession of gargantuan amounts of data provide a guarantee for success or failure? …success from getting the right information to the right person at the right time or failure from not knowing how to manage so much data?  

To get an idea what ‘Big Data’ means to Facebook, visualize a system that handles 6 million photo uploads, 160 million newsfeed stories, 5 billion realtime message exchanges, 10 billion profile photos shown, and 108 billion queries — every 30 minutes! Impressive by today’s standards, but not for long, for what is coming next, better known as the ‘Industrial Internet’ as opposed to the ‘Social Internet’, will very likely generate orders of magnitude more data than the social-driven ‘Big Data’ we have today.

Facebook vs ‘Panelbook’
For the sake of argument, let us consider a machine-version of Facebook, one that we will call ‘Panelbook’, where ‘Panel’ refers to the ‘face’ or screen used to operate a machine. At ‘Panelbook’, machines rather than people would ‘socialize’ with their fellow machines by exchanging lots of data,  24/7. For example, a smart meter in your home would collect data from your appliances and relay messages back to the manufacturing plant (i.e. GE) where more machines using algorithms to assess its condition might issue alerts to yet more machines including, perhaps, the homeowner’s smartphone. Don’t expect uploads of photos of machine-tikes in diapers any time soon on ‘Panelbook’, but you can get the point.  ‘Big Data’ in the ‘Industrial Internet’ will undoubtedly dominate ‘Big Data’ from the ‘Social Internet, a trend that CEOs and industry leaders should take close heed when allocating corporate resources.

At a recent annual technology conference called EmTech 2012, CEO’s, innovators, investors, academics, entrepreneurs, and major industry players gathered at MIT’s Media Lab to hear the industry’s thought-leaders share their best practices, comment on trends, and recommend new ideas. I felt that their various presentations on ‘Big Data’ barely scratched the surface of what potentially lies ahead. ‘Big Data’ is more than just an onslaught of information to be managed and disseminated but is also the fluid mosaic of the constantly changing faces of the Internet, its increasing number of users, and its collective implications on our growing societies.

To make some sense of  ‘Big Data’ today (indigestion or innovation), I organized four presentations from the event in a specific order to emphasize their complementary roles in the ongoing transition of ‘Big Data from ‘social’ to ‘industrial’ data. They are mission critical data, faster access to data, and organically generated data to trigger innovation.  Notice in each description how each role has influenced areas of society that have had to react to an ever growing number of new capabilities. As one might expect, these roles will continue to evolve, causing even more changes, as nothing on the Internet remains in its current state for long.

Siemens – Mission Critical Data
Leading the charge for ‘Big Data’ was none other than the CEO of Siemens Industry Sector, USA, Dr. Helmuth Ludwig who spoke of the crucial role ‘Big Data’, played with the Curiosity vessel that landed on Mars earlier this year. On the vessel are thousands of probes that monitor more probes that eventually release a signal back to NASA’s base station where receiving probes are monitored by more probes. Managing massive amounts of data from probe to probe is one challenge, but doing so flawlessly so tasks are performed perfectly each time, requires a well-trained and coordinated workforce of global experts who must use a common digital platform to share their data. For example, some of the parameters released by NASA to its contractor JPL and others for Curiosity’s landing on Mars included an entry speed of 13,000 miles per hour with an atmosphere one hundred times thinner than earth, a time frame of less than 7 minutes to touchdown and only a two-week window per year for launching from earth.

According to Ludwig, more and more projects will resemble the risk profile of Curiosity and the type of workforce needed to execute mission-critical projects. To that end Siemens currently spends over $500 million to train 1.2 million students per year. They also sponsor $100,000 rewards for innovation contests to encourage STEM (Science Technology Engineering Mathematics) career interest at both the high school and college levels.

Qualcom – Faster Access
Less on mission critical data and more on making room for more data through existing resources, Qualcom’s CTO, Matt Grob, focused on catapulting today’s 3G, 4G, and WiFi data capacities to 1,000 times faster access speeds by collating a clever topography of mini cell towers controlled by readily available  interference management technology. Overlapping signals from one tower to another would be automatically tweaked at just the right time to deliver an optimal throughput. The amounts of ‘Big Data’ to get the signals just right, are truly a task for machines. One can only imagine what new apps will emerge from an almost incomprehensibly faster mobile web connection, 1000x faster!

Iridium – Mission Critical Data and Faster Access
For ‘Big Data’ to be mission critical and responsive Matt Desch, CEO for Iridium, discussed his firm’s challenges with a global phone service that relies on an interconnected canopy of 66 orbiting satellites.  No matter where a call originates with an Iridium global phone, an Iridium satellite is no further than eight minutes away to pickup incoming signals and relay them to a central base station in Phoenix Arizona where calls are connected.

Iridium has reserved seven rocket launches from SpaceX to replace its aging fleet of satellites. The new fleet due by 2016 will unleash exciting apps including a top-down aircraft surveillance system that can save fuel by allowing planes to fly closer together and away from bad weather systems. At the end of his presentation, Desch held up a thumbnail-size ‘Iridium’ chip that enables any device to connect to its network including existing mobile phones. Perhaps, in the not too distant future, airline passengers will be able to make calls from their ‘Iridiumized’ mobile phones while in flight.

Xerox – Using ‘Big Data’ to Innovate
‘Big Data’ is not just about the collection of random data but also about the organic creation of more data.  The CTO at Xerox, Ms. Sophie Vandebroek, taps on ‘Big Data’ for innovation by treating its workforce as data points and deliberately mixing and matching unlikely pairs of experts to see what can happen. Xerox believes that innovation evolves when experts from different fields of study can look inward at a problem and lend a relevant suggestion. However, hitting a home run is analogous to winning a lottery ticket. For this reason, Xerox and other companies like Shell International with their “Game Changer” program encourage their participants to be critical from the out start and seek the fastest routes to failure before committing to a new idea.

In Summary
‘Big Data’ offers so many options for companies that without a clear set of objectives CEOs could run up huge losses from negative investment returns. Similar to chasing the end of a rainbow, ‘Big Data’ can become elusive, misleading, and overwhelming. One distinction that became clear from the EmTech 2012 conference was the growing importance of the Industrial Internet where machines communicate with other machines. Although the social data is useful for understanding markets and spotting new trends, industrial data is by far the platform-of-choice for what soon will become the ‘BIGGER DATA’.

Winning by Failing, the new Entrepreneurial Paradigm Shift

Why is it that startup companies that fail never make headline news? A likely reason is that few readers are interested, and yet, over one-half of new startups fail during their first year of operations. To make matters worse, their unfortunate founders are often subjected to heavy losses, fines, foreclosures, and humiliation, just for trying to fulfill their dreams. Why then, do societies worldwide come down so hard on these well-intended individuals, especially when they represent a potential source for job creation? Are entrepreneurs who fail, outcasts or overlooked assets? 

Successful startups or inventions do not just surface out of thin air. Thomas Edison, one of the greatest inventors of modern times, once claimed that he never invented the light bulb but rather confirmed 2,000 ways of how not to make a light bulb. Edison knew that his inventions hinged on repeated experiments, the vast majority of which would fail. Why then did he consider his failed attempts more valuable than his inventions? Was it because he viewed his successes and breakthroughs as an afterthought? In a new world order where inventors have had to become entrepreneurs and entrepreneurs, inventors, could Edison’s approach to ‘inventing/winning by failing’ offer us some new insights?

Imagine if…
Imagine if, instead of shunning entrepreneurs who failed, societies embraced their expertise (such as the many ways not to make something work) by efficiently reintegrating their experiences/experiments into an ongoing process of discovery and invention? Take this idea one step further. Imagine if, these entrepreneurs were motivated to work together by co-owning shares of an organization that was partially funded by the profits of the companies whose ideas/inventions did succeed.

While most entrepreneurs would support this type of arrangement, the traditional establishment of venture capitalists, private equity investors, politicians, and large established companies may not. But, as technology advancements continue to enable entrepreneurs to accomplish more with lower funding requirements, investors and their cohorts may, at some point, be wise to reconsider their old business models.

Evidence of Edison: A Five Country Review
To see, if indeed, entrepreneurship is trending toward an inventor’s model, I met with key leaders from 5 different countries including an academic institution, (Ecuador, Chile, Kenya, Mexico, and MIT) and compared their respective entrepreneurial initiatives. My choice of countries coincided with a slew of conferences and meetings that I attended between the months of August and September of 2012.

With each person I met, I inquired what policies, if any, they or their respective governments/institutions were actively pursuing to promote local entrepreneurship. If they were entrepreneurs, I asked about their experiences and expectations. Over time their collective comments developed into an interesting mosaic, which reflected their wide range of experiences promoting entrepreneurship. Less experienced countries sought lofty goals and often highlighted successful models elsewhere. Assuming this trend, one might conclude that the country/institution with the most experience could thus be considered the industry trendsetter.

Least Experienced – Ecuador, Chile, Kenya
A countries with the least experience promoting entrepreneurship such as Ecuador are usually held back by their own overburdening bureaucracy and an economy largely operated by a handful of family-owned businesses. Chile partially addressed these issues by legislating laws that designated a protected area (legally and physically) for its new startups. Their plan also included shared support systems (i.e. office space, Internet connection, etc.), and funding for an aggressive international mentorship program. Kenya’s government built out an Internet infrastructure that today connects over 40 million Kenyan users. They also approved the use of a mobile phone digital currency called M-Pesa that together has mobilized local entrepreneurs and investors.

Mid-Way – Mexico
At mid-way, Mexican thought-leaders are grappling with more sophisticated issues such as integrating venture capital funding. Key to their strategy is a coordinated effort among Mexican government officials, local venture funds, and public universities (i.e. Tecnológico de Monterrey) to identify the next ‘Steve Jobs-like’ entrepreneurs (or, in their words, ‘super entrepreneurs’’) who are capable of building the next ‘Apple-like’ industry on Mexican soil. To attract greater investor interest, the Mexican government recently approved a USD$120 million ‘fund of funds’ to encourage more venture fund managers to work with their most promising startups.

Most Experienced – MIT Media Labs
The highest level of experience also tagged as the industry’s potential trendsetter in my sample was MIT’s Media Lab (Massachusetts Institute of Technology). Under the direction of Joicho Ito, an accomplished investor and colorful visionary, MIT’s Media Lab operates about 350 concurrent student-related startups.  Ito explains that his primary focus is to develop a team’s collective agility rather than the prowess of one exceptional individual. Startup founders find each other, are free to innovate together as they see fit, and, when ready, present their ideas for funding by conducting a proof-of-concept such as a small pilot or survey. Funding is limited to no more than $100,000 per team. Teams that succeed may pitch for more funding (with a formal business plan), while those that fail are encouraged to join another team.

Teams are expected to conduct many small pilots and leverage their data analytics to identify timely opportunities. Ito’s unwritten rule of denying a second round of financing has forced team members to become more agile with their decisions.  As expected, however, failures do happen and are not only common at the Media Lab, but most importantly, revered. According to Ito, students who learn to fail several times, actually win by learning the art of risk taking. Given several chances to take risks within a short period of time has proven to render more ‘breakthrough ideas’ as well as develop a more seasoned crop of team leaders/entrepreneurs.

Conclusion
This brief five country evaluation simplifies the entrepreneurial process into three distinct levels and suggests that sequential levels place the most experienced country/institution as the potential trendsetter, in this case MIT’s Media Labs.

Assuming my analysis is true and MIT’s Media Lab succeeds at creating companies responsible for new industries in the coming years, then one might guess what advice Thomas Edison would have given to governments and institutions if he were alive today.  According to Edison, future entrepreneurial programs would do better if they focused more on efficiently recycling lessons from failed attempts than on sifting through hay stacks of candidates in search of a few needles of success.

Hopefully Edison’s likely advice will turn on a few more light bulbs in the minds of our global leaders!

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Appendix

I have included an Appendix for those of you interested in more details and interesting tidbits from my interviews with each country/institution for this article.

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Ecuador, Chile, Kenya, Mexico, MIT
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Guayaquil, Ecuador
Considered a hidden city by investors in-the-know, Guayaquil recently conducted a national roadshow, http://www.nationroadshow.com/guayaquil/en, that began in New York City. In my brief interview with their mayor, Jaime Nebot, he expressed his views on entrepreneurship for his city in two words. ‘Not now!” Ecuador, like other Latin American countries are controlled by a handful of influential family groups who operate the country’s key businesses. For young Ecuadorian entrepreneurs, the chance of succeeding is both intimidating and inhibiting, not to mention, the 8 month lead time needed just to register a company and fulfill all of the public sector requirements. Venture funding exists primarily for launching new businesses within already established ones. Most new businesses are proven concepts transferred from other countries rather than breakthrough technologies that could offer spectacular returns. For now, Mayor Nebot is focused on attracting established international firms to Guayaquil that have the wherewithall to weather his country’s stifling bureaucracy.

Santiago, Chile
At a recent conference on M&A activities in Latin America held at the offices of Baker & McKenzie – (www.bakermckenzie.com) in New York, a cadre of legal experts described Chile’s financial economy as brisk. Unlike Ecuador with its family-owned monopolies, Chile’s formerly family-owned firms have been institutionalized and therefore easier to merge and acquire. Despite these advances, entrepreneurialism in Chile has had its challenges. Young Chilean students who might have taken to entrepreneurialism sooner prefer careers in finance, medicine, or law.

About two years ago, the government of Chile approved funds for a revolutionary program called Startup Chile (www.startupchile.org). Hoping to change the mindset of its youth, Chile’s government is offering entrepreneurs from around the world a USD$40,000 grant to spend 6 months launching their startups in one of two buildings located in downtown Santiago. The program attracted seasoned global entrepreneurs who served as mentors to Chile’s young hopefuls.  Chilean entrepreneurs today account for over half of the startups in the program. One of the participants I interviewed at a local meeting in New York, described the environment at the incubator in Santiago as serious-yet-fun, inspiring, rewarding, and very international. Founders often work with one partner on premise and form virtual teams-on-demand using shared referred resources sometimes located in other countries.

Nairobi, Kenya
A banking phenomena called the M-Pesa has emerged in the unlikely city of Nairobi, Kenya. M-Pesa is a cell phone currency operated by Safaricom (www.safaricom.co.ke) that has transformed local economies in a manner that few could have imagined possible and that other countries have had difficulty emulating. Similar to PayPal’s online capabilities (www.paypal.com), M-Pesa funds appear as a balance on a cell phone account that can be drawn and transferred at the time of purchase from one cell phone to another. Its resounding success has created fertile ground for Kenyan entrepreneurs and has attracted investor groups including a local bank. As expected, Kenyan entrepreneurs have formed their own version of an incubator/consulting operation called iHub, (www.ihub.co.ke) where local techies and investors can congregate. Despite having many fundamental issues to resolve, Kenya’s success in lubricating its economy with a digitized currency is truly noteworthy. Credit is largely due to the Kenyan government who played a crucial role in building out the infrastructure needed to connect over 40 million cell/Internet users.

Mexico City, Mexico
At a recent conference held in New York by the Mexican-American Chamber of Commerce – Northeast Chapter, (www.usmcocne.org) on Mexican innovation, entrepreneurship, and venture capital financing, two panels of key influencers shared their views.

There I learned that 99.8% of the firms in Mexico produce just over half of the country’s annual GDP (52%).  Most revealing was that the remaining 0.2% of Mexican firms are in the hands of the ‘super-rich’ who collectively account for the other half of the country’s annual GDP. With half of the country’s GDP in so few hands, venture capitalists and similar funding sources have seized the opportunity to disrupt the status quo with a new crop of technology-based firms that could deliver ‘Apple-like’ growth and a similar eco-system of supporting companies.  Their ‘plan of attack’ as expressed at the conference, was principally focused on identifying ‘Steve Job-like’ candidates who would agree to work tirelessly, communicate effectively, innovate constantly, and function amenably with their venture capital support teams. They referred to these individuals as ‘super entrepreneurs’.

To fill the pipeline with potential candidates, one of Mexico’s largest academic institutions, Tecnológico de Monterrey, operates a Technology Center for Entrepreneurs (www.itesm.mx). The center currently manages a total of 1,500 startups per year. Startups that show exceptional promise graduate to the university’s accelerator program and may eventually compete for venture capital funding. This step also includes assistance from internationally recognized non-profit organizations such as Endeavor Global (www.endeavor.org), also present at the conference. Graduates from the exclusive Endeavor Global program work with leader/mentors along with their peers to gain additional market access and intel.

Mexico’s Venture Capital (VC) industry is small in comparison to the US but is making meaningful strides.  They have approved legislation granting VC’s with limited access to its hefty pensions. In addition, the government has recently approved a $120 million fund called the Entrepreneur’s Fund or ‘fund of funds’ to encourage more local money managers to address the needs of their up and coming squadron of ‘super entrepreneurs’. The government’s support is crucial and timely for Mexico, since its crop of qualified candidates are more global in scope than their predecessors and  could easily decide to move their businesses to another country for support and funding.

Cambridge, MA (MIT)
At MIT’s student incubator known as the Media Lab in Cambridge, MA (www.media.mit.edu), Joicho Ito, an accomplished investor and colorful visionary, oversees over 350 concurrent student-related startups.  On the surface, the incubator program appeared similar to the incubator/accelerator initiative at the Tecnológico de Monterrey in Mexico. However, a closer inspection showed that  their similarities ended at the front door.  At the Tecnológico de Monterrey, startup instruction is centered around the rigors of writing and rewriting a comprehensive business plan that might, one day, be used for funding consideration at a venture capital firm. In contrast, MIT’s Media Lab postpones the business plan writing exercises until funding has been approved.  Heretical in his approach, Ito explains that his primary focus is a team’s collective agility rather than the prowess of one exceptional individual or a business plan subjected to the rigidity of an outline and presentation. Startup founders find each other, are free to innovate together as they see fit, and, when ready, present their ideas for funding by conducting some form of proof-of-concept such as a small pilot or survey. Funding is limited to no more than $100,000 per team. Teams that succeed may pitch for more funding (with a formal business plan), while those that fail are encouraged to join another team.

Teams are expected to conduct many small pilots and leverage their data analytics to identify timely opportunities. Ito’s unwritten rule of denying a second round of financing has forced team members to become more agile with their decisions.  As expected, however, failures do happen and are not only common at the Media Lab, but most importantly, revered. According to Ito, students who learn to fail several times, actually win by learning the art of risk taking. Given several chances to take risks within a short period of time has proven to render more ‘breakthrough ideas’ as well as develop a more seasoned crop of team leaders/entrepreneurs.

Implications for ‘On-Demand’ Manufacturing

When asked if they were considering pulling their manufacturing facilities out of China, 45% of US-based CEO’s interviewed in a recent Boston Consulting Group survey, said the idea was under serious consideration. Has manufacturing in China become too expensive for American companies or has new tooling technologies and processes eliminated the need for China’s cheap labor? If the trend for US companies is to return to the US or ‘reshore’, what will the new industrial landscape look like in the next few years?  How should CEO’s, government officials and job seekers prepare? 

With more machines replacing workers, China’s appeal as a global manufacturing base is wearing thin. According to an MIT Forum on Supply Chain Innovation (supplychain.mit.edu) held on July 25, US firms are taking a closer look at the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) and have discovered a slew of hidden costs that ‘cheap labor’ has been masking all along. For instance, US firms that outsource their manufacturing to China are often forced to absorb 100% of a product’s liabilities, since China’s legal system is virtually unenforceable. ‘Made in USA’ also translates into increased quality control, which in turn can keep a tighter lid on counterfeits, a chronic issue with Chinese producers.

The US government along with non-profit organizations are pushing awareness-campaign web sites along with evaluation tools to encourage more US CEOs to consider ‘reshoring’ sooner, (reshorenow.org).  Congress believes that ‘reshored’ manufacturing plants in the US will help create sustainable jobs in economically depressed regions, while providing much needed positive news for unemployed voters.

Contrasting policies: US vs China
While the US is ‘reshoring’ its operations to setup state-of-the-art manufacturing facilities back home, China is aggressively retooling its existing facilities to replace many of their low-wage workers. Foxconn Technology Group (foxconn.com), also assemblers for Apple products, recently announced plans to replace two-thirds of its work force with one million robots by 2013. These robots will be made in China, courtesy of the many US-trained Chinese engineers who have been forced by the US government to return immediately after graduation. US firms such as Boeing, iRobotics, and IBM have lobbied heavily in Congress to prevent this unnecessary ‘brain drain’ by requesting the issuance of work permits and extended visas with fewer restrictions to encourage qualified foreign students to remain in the US longer.

A glimpse at the future…
The implications of the US’s ‘reshoring’ and China’s retooling is starting to lay down the foundations for ‘on demand’ manufacturing where products are produced not only on an as-needed basis but also to a buyer’s specification at the time the order is placed.  Shipments would arrive either immediately (i.e. at a retail outlet) or on the same day.  A glimpse into the future shows how this phenomenon could be achieved using clusters of networked mini-plants and warehouse facilities.  A possible rendition of this concept follows:

In the not so distant future, tooling companies will eventually perfect the design of a fully automated manufacturing facility that can fit and operate inside a 20 or 40 foot container for easy transport and installation anywhere in the world. These modular containers would be networked together, stacked to meet seasonal demand, and monitored remotely. They would be as mobile as laptops are to professionals today offering unprecedented agility and optimal efficiencies based on a multitude of input and output variables.  Hence, if the price of raw material were to suddenly drop below a certain level in one part of the world or a market preference demand spike in another, mini-plants would be moved accordingly to take advantage of the opportunity arbitrage.

Mini-plants moved from one location to another would plug in the same way a voip phone (VOice of IP) operates today.  Once plugged into the network, the plant would operate as though it were located in the same office as the employees hired to operate it.  A comprehensive network of plant modules would optimize order flow by producing products closest to the buyer, hence, reducing or eliminating both inventory and transportation costs. Plant capacity would vary from as little as one unit using 3-D printing technology, for example, to multiple custom units using a network of local machines. (3Dsystems.com). Eventually smaller, faster, and safer machines will enable new industries such as urban factories that would locate mini-plants adjacent to designated retail outlets.

If evaluated in pieces, this futuristic vision is already in play today. Beginning with the recent landing of Curiosity on the planet Mars, one can be certain that remote operations of large machinery is on course to improve with time. The ‘on-demand’ manufacturing idea is currently being tested at a large grocery chain in New Jersey where vegetable produce is grown indoors, one floor above the retail space using hydroponic farms, (city-hydroponics.com).  The mini-plant/warehouse combination is a soon-to-be reality at Amazon as it responds to a recent sales tax levy.  Amazon plans to setup smaller warehouse operations in all 50 States to offer same day delivery for their most popular items.  It would be only a matter of time before they decide to manufacture some of these items under their own brand at these same sites.

Implications…
Consumers may love the idea of some day ordering exactly what they want, when they want it and to receive all of this exceptional service at an affordable price, since supply chain cost would have been significantly reduced. However, these technological advancements have a darker side.  They come at a steep social cost because they eliminate more jobs than they create, an issue that can no longer be ignored as unemployment continues to rise globally.  This serious dilemma leads to the second part of this article by asking the following question.

If technology advancements, which continue to grow at an exponential pace, are eliminating more jobs than they can create, what, then, can CEOs, government leaders, and job seekers do to rebalance this trend?  

There really is no one answer or silver bullet that will solve this problem.  Part of the reason is that the benefits from adapting new technology today can easily reach a global population at exponential rates.  As greater numbers demand more for less (and in a shorter time period than ever before), technology continues to advance at an unstoppable pace stripping our planet of its precious resources, while also eliminating jobs.

Has the pursuit for new technology become a runaway train?  If so, the only antidote to counter its job loss effects would be to integrate innovative thinking at every level of society and at a global scale.  With this new initiative, every breathing individual would partake in some form of innovation group exercises regularly, to build upon experiences, new ideas, and ultimately unveil breakthrough solutions.

A few ideas so far…
Chile’s government has taken a bold move. They have been offering a no-questions-asked stipend of forty thousand dollars to any young, unproven web entrepreneurs with a good idea, if the approved candidate agrees to spend six months working on their new startup in a newly established innovation incubator located in Santiago, (startupchile.org). This initiative has inspired Chile’s young adult population to start their own companies, while being mentored by some of the best entrepreneurs and developers on the planet. A simple but powerful idea, Chile has created a valuable global supply chain for its own innovation needs.

Chile is not alone.  Many countries have developed innovation centers too and support regular networking events for techies and entrepreneurs.  For example, New York City has Gary’s Guide (garysguide.com), a weekly calendar of informal discussions and gatherings.  There anyone who may be testing the waters can share ideas, look for partners, and attract funding. Many of the gatherings listed are free or cost less than $25 to attend. Also, Boston offers Mass Innovation Nights (innovationnights.com) where startups compete and vote for funding among their peers.

At the corporate level, Facebook offers a good example for CEOs with their ‘hackathons’. Each week, a group of programmers spend an evening, developing new application ideas that are later presented and voted upon the following day. Ideas are implemented, tested and ranked.  Those ideas that come out on top can usually point to a long trail of previous ‘hackathon’ events and results that led them to an optimal solution.

Job seekers should seek ways to update their skills by taking advantage of some of the many free online courses being offered this Fall through various top universities including Harvard/MIT (edx.org). These are not accredited courses, yet, but do an excellent job of teaching current and relevant materials.  Another good source to brush up on high school and college basics is Khan Academy (KhanAcademy.org). If learning a new computer language such as Java or HTML5 is on your to-do list, consider signing up for a free trial at Safari Books Online (safaribooksonline.com) where they offer access to current libraries of technology books. Many more options are available through your favorite search engine.

A Call-to-Action!
To maintain our economic drivers going forward, the balance between new technology and job creation will require the efforts and contributions of every living person including YOU. That is because no one person or company has the answer.

Regardless if you are a CEO, a politician, or a job seeker, sitting on the sidelines with the hopes that this economic storm will soon blow over may not be your best choice. Instead, consider moving away from the receiving end of innovation and partake in its creation. You can start by participating in any one of the rapidly evolving community-based initiatives located near you. As you learn more, keep in mind that this new era of ‘on-demand’ manufacturing is as much about producing products more efficiently as it is about stimulating innovative thinking. One cannot survive without the other.

If you are looking for ideas to integrate an innovation culture among your staff or team, please contact me directly at tom@researchpays.net. 

Reverse Innovation

Just after the dot com economic bubble burst at the turn of the century, surviving CEO’s boasted how well they had managed the ‘reinvention’ of their companies as well as the job descriptions of their employees. Being flexible meant a company was nimble and ready at a moment’s notice to pounce on the next upcoming opportunity, but about 8 years later and shortly after the 2009 economic crisis, everything changed.  ‘Reinvention’ was out, while the new term, ‘Innovation’, was in. What caused this change?  …and how can CEO’s inject this ‘new era of innovation’ into their company cultures?  

In a recent New York Times bestseller titled, “Reverse Innovation”, co-written by Vijay Govindarajan and Chris Trimble, the authors claim that most CEO’s truly do not understand how to leverage innovation in a connected world.  …and for those that do, their corporate culture would have great difficulty supporting innovative ideas that are not incremental to their existing operations.  Almost counterintuitive, the more efficient and successful a firm, the less of a chance it can fully leverage this ‘new era of innovation’.  Why?  The reason for the shortcoming has nothing to do with a firm’s ability to come up with new ideas.  Most of their technicians are smart and well prepared, and yet, herein lies the core of their problem.

Smart people like to become smarter by building upon a previous design or success.  They know how to continuously deliver improvements to a product or service, and as they continue down a preferred experience curve, they tend to innovate within their established comfort zones.  In addition the base of loyal customers that buy their products contingent upon incremental enhancements is dwindling, not growing.  At some point, like in the case of GM prior to its government bailout, either the Research & Development (R&D) team will run out of new ideas or the reduced number of loyal customers who demand more features will become financially unsustainable.

What then should a CEO do when their R&D department reaches a plateau and stops delivering on new and exciting ideas for the majority of their customers?

The CEO could replace the R&D team’s leader with another, but most likely, the new leader will come from a competitor and be just as narrowly focused on features as his predecessor.  There is also the enormous investment in lab and testing equipment that indirectly influences the direction of research and the scope to invent new ideas.  Many labs leverage their knowledge-base with other labs and together could create an even narrower preferred niche for innovation.  Aside from scrapping the department entirely and starting from scratch, a CEO might consider a hybrid solution as highlighted in Vijay’s book on ‘Reverse Innovation’.

In 2008 Vijay’s preliminary work on reverse innovation caught the attention of Jeff Immelt, the CEO of General Electric or GE.  Immelt knew that his super efficient operations at GE were potentially hurting his R&D efforts to innovate new products, company-wide. Over the years his company’s vision to innovate ‘out-of-the-box’ had become myopic in an environment where success was measured by cost reductions rather than sales to new markets. He also knew from his previous experiences in India and China that exporting his goods to emerging markets would have limited success, despite design adjustments to reduce price points.

Immelt felt that if he could somehow harness emerging market intel at a local level and pass it along to his formidable R&D teams located in developed countries, that he would win big.  Not only would he gain valuable insights to new ideas but also offer his R&D team with unprecedented access to ‘live’ laboratories of potential buyers for field testing new ideas and further tweaking of their existing designs. With this plan in mind, Immelt turned to Vijay and his team at Dartmouth to evaluate implementation strategies that could co-exist with GE’s behemoth, efficiency-driven operation. In so doing, Vijay coined the GE initiative the same as the title of his book, “Reverse Innovation”. …which refers to the direction of information flow from a disorganized emerging market to the confines of a sophisticated lab team in a developed country. (Traditionally, innovation begins within the confines of a lab team and their final results exported to emerging markets.)

Vijay’s recommended implementation strategy offered GE’s labs with a rich inventory of field-tested, innovative solutions that could potentially unleash a renewed culture of exciting possibilities, company-wide.  In his book Vijay covers 6 more similar case studies with other organizations and concludes with an open invitation for additional insights. To that end, I have chosen to add my two bits.

An Alternative Approach
Aside from improving an R&D team, a reverse innovation approach could also become a game-changer if applied at a company’s Human Resources level.  Hiring has virtually followed the same process for decades, where recruiters or hiring managers sift through thousands of resumes and are rewarded based on how well they can match candidates with a job description. However, if we apply some of what Immelt and Vijay have taught us so far, hiring just to match a job description may create the same incremental way of thinking that was shown to insulate a group from innovating new ideas.

Perhaps firms should view hiring as a strategic opportunity to inject outsider perspectives that would otherwise never surface among their current employees.  With online training easily accessible, companies should consider hiring based on one’s ability and willingness to expand their knowledge-base so they can participate in meaningful dialogue with multiple department heads.  Similar to the contributions from emerging markets that helped GE grow, these ‘field-tested’ innovations from new hires could trigger a renewed culture of exciting possibilities, company-wide.

What is your opinion?

Recycling the Debate of Sustainability

What is sustainability? Is it a personal commitment to save the planet or just another opportunity to charge higher prices?  No one really knows.  When you think of the need for sustainability you might envision countries at war over water rights or abandoned vehicles along highways due to gas shortages.  These ominous images are not fantasy but possible realities, unless we, as a planet, can figure out how to curtail the depletion of our natural resources. Who should be in charge of such an undertaking and what can they do, if anything, to help reverse the inevitable? 

Sustainability is a very complex subject.  It is a byproduct of a long chain of technological advancements that over time have created the problem we face today, namely, the production of cheaper products.  As the global population balloons so too does the demand for our limited resources needed to produce these products.  It is only a matter of time before key resources such as iron ore, petroleum, or phosphates (used for fertilizers) are 100% depleted.  Higher prices help fuel additional exploration into harder-to-find deposits, but sooner than later, those new discoveries will get consumed as well.  Perhaps, what is needed is a comprehensive international sustainability plan that buys time to develop substitutes or alternative solutions.  In my quest to gain a deeper perspective, I recently attended three sustainability conferences.  What I discovered may surprise you.

Conference #1 – Sustainability
My first conference was at MIT’s 4th Annual Sustainability Summit (www.stabilitysummit.mit.edu).  Experts, thought-leaders, and entrepreneurs traveled from as far away as South Africa to compare and exchange ideas. Their animated presence gave credence to the dire urgency for a global mandate among our leaders.   The wide range of ideas and opinions that emerged from the Summit sounded hopeful, but also left one wondering, if a solution to such a large problem was even plausible.  I left with a list of nagging questions such as, who should be responsible for implementing sustainability programs, what steps would be taken to monitor progress, and how realistically ‘sustainable’ would these ideas stand on their own for years to come.  I felt as though our society had reached a turning point between progress and preservation, the same way a sailboat feels while turning into the wind to change its course.

Ironically, the same technological innovations (some of which originated at MIT) that helped make our natural resources readily available to the masses is being called upon to prevent its potential demise.  For now, at least, experts are focusing on remedies to slow depletion rates through improved management, communications, and efficiencies, but these changes only postpone the inevitable and do not provide a ‘sustainable’ solution.  At the MIT Summit we heard two presentations that I felt stood out.  One was from Starbucks and the other from the City of Boston.  As they both shared their experiences and best practices, I noticed an interesting pattern that I will later use to compare with my two other conferences.

Starbucks
Jim Hanna, the Director of Environmental Impact, leads the sustainability charge for Starbucks.  Starbucks began by evaluating the carbon footprint of every activity along their supply chain and focused on those areas that offered the greatest positive impact to the environment.  In one case they discovered that the nitrous oxide used to make their whip cream was 300 times more damaging to the environment than it’s equivalent volume in carbon dioxide.

Along with other like-minded corporations, Starbucks subscribed to a green certification process for their five roasting operations and, in addition, re-engineered their stores to use 25% less energy and water. They also empowered members of their supply chain to reduce their respective carbon foot print (i.e. paper mills) and supported their revered coffee farmers with fixed pricing, stable contracts, and business know-how.

City of Boston
Jim Hunt, the Chief of Environmental and Energy Services for the City of Boston took a similar infrastructure approach to Starbucks.  His research unveiled that ‘buildings’ and ‘utilities’ together offered a 65% improvement impact, vastly greater than other types of improvements including ‘consumer behavior’, which came in at a surprising 7%.  In conjunction with a third-party advocacy group known as LEEDS, Mr. Hunt’s team focused on new construction and retrofitting of buildings throughout Boston with a goal of becoming a carbon neutral city by 2030.  The improved office buildings would attract like-minded tenants who in turn would offer better jobs. One such building called the ‘Atlantic Wharf’ is rated with distinction as a ‘LEED Gold’ building.  It uses 42% less energy, has a 43% reduction in GHG emissions, and recycles 90% of the rain water for its cooling towers.  This clean energy initiative has rendered more than just savings for the City of Boston.  It has also accounted for over 64,000 clean-energy jobs from R&D to installation.

What struck me most from these two presentations was how both entities focused their resources on infrastructure improvements rather than on consumer or voter awareness.  Their consumers or voters were almost an afterthought and probably not worth the investment.  Perhaps they both felt that consumers/voters would eventually change their behavior or awareness on their own as they adapted to new and improved surroundings at the workplace, especially at companies renting the LEED’s-approved, ‘green‘ office spaces.

Conference #2 – Innovation vs Sustainability
At Reagan National Airport earlier this month, Boeing’s CEO, Jim McNerney, unveiled their new Dreamliner 787 aircraft boasting a 15% fuel reduction due to a whole host of technological advancements including a parabolic wing span and a lighter hull structure made of 100% carbon fiber.  The event attracted other sustainability leaders such IBM’s chairman, Samuel Palmisano, and iRobotics Chief Strategy Officer, Joseph Dyer.

Organized by ‘The Atlantic’, a Washington-based political publication (www.theatlantic.com), these influential  companies delivered a unified message on sustainability that contrasted with the MIT Summit.  Unlike Starbucks and the City of Boston, Boeing, IBM, and iRobotics focused less on infrastructure changes and more on new ways to apply ‘sustainability thinking’ to the process of innovation.  They wanted members of Congress to listen to their views on their collaborative strategic approach to innovation where each player, including the government, would have a specific role.

Boeings Mr. McNerney, felt that the US Government should not invest in specific companies, citing the recent Solyndra bankruptcy.  Instead they should focus on investing in tomorrow’s education and research, write laws to regulate a balance between economic growth and safety, and approve tax policies to help pay for these projects.

IBM’s Mr. Palmisano, noted that the politics of ‘offshore’ manufacturing no longer applies.  According to him, global business no longer has any ‘shores’ to have an ‘offshore’.  As a consequence, Congress should endorse more liberal immigration policies that will allow the global elite who study in US universities to remain working in the US rather than be forced to leave upon graduation.  To the underemployment issue, Mr. Palmisano announced a multi-corporate initiative with Mayor Bloomberg in New York where they are jointly offering a 6-year High School/Associates Engineering Degree program to qualifying students with a promise of a $50k/yr job after graduation.  This program is in its second year and has demonstrated dramatically improved test scores when compared to other schools.

Finally, iRobotics’ Mr. Dyer, felt that innovation companies like his, need a government mandated 30% financial cushion to meet all of the regulatory requirements. At the scale required to make a sustainable difference, innovation companies can no longer rely on the bootstrapping talent of a few eager entrepreneurs.  Just like new employees, startups need ‘an insurance policy’ of sorts to innovate successfully.  Mr. Dyer also shared an imperative discipline for generating successful R&D projects.  The first 10% of a project’s funding should include extensive planning and scheduling for the remainder of the project.  According to him, too many promising projects begin on loose terms that are based on hope rather than on sound planning.

Conference #3 – Excess Capacity
The third event I attended was an MIT presentation given by the co-founder of Zipcar.com and the founder of Buzzcar.com, Robin Chase.  Ms. Chase’s world looks at sustainability from a different lens.  Rather than address depleting resources, Ms. Chase focuses on organizing excess capacity to help alleviate the demand pressures from a growing population.  For example, assets sitting idle such as a parked car can be used by another person who might otherwise purchase their own vehicle.  Another example she cited is in Bogota, Colombia where a 130km stretch of a roadway is opened for pedestrian usage on Sundays.  …and of course, there is ‘cloud computing’.

The conclusions from Conference #3 were strikingly different from the other two.  First, unlike Starbucks and the City of Boston, Ms. Chase’s approach to Zipcars leaned heavily on the community for both endorsement and feedback and paid little attention to infrastructure improvements.  Once more, Robin’s approach to innovation was far simpler than Boeing’s, IBM’s, or iRobitics.  In her case new ideas could evolve with one or two trials at a near zero cost per trial.

Despite their common goal to achieve sustainability, each entity identified the approach that best suited their immediate needs.  Obviously what would work for one may not necessarily work for another, making the task of promoting sustainability that much more difficult.  No doubt sustainability is complex and the debate of how the planet can achieve sustainability will continue through many more iterations.  Allowing the debate to recycle freely and often, may be the optimal universal approach to lay the foundations for an international master plan.

Emerging Digital Wallets

Did it ever occur to you that some day you may have to pay extra for the cash stashed in your wallet?  Well, with the emergence of the digital wallet where daily transactions happen with a tap or wave of a registered device, merchants may soon opt to stop accepting cash or actually charge extra for cash payments!  Going ‘cashless’ may offer immediate efficiency benefits to society but over the long term, it could also change the landscape of global currencies altogether.

For centuries cash has been the life-blood of economies allowing buyers and sellers to exchange goods and services both locally and across borders, based on exchange rates that compare their respective buying powers. For many countries including the US, cash is a symbol of national pride. It not only represents the collective success of a nation among nations but also offers privacy and control of how we choose to spend it.  With more and more disruptive technological breakthroughs looming in this space, one might wonder what other trends could emerge when the physical evidence of hard currency is reduced to nearly-invisible electronic digits.

Today’s Technology
Electronic fund technology is founded upon on an ongoing convergence between established banking services and emerging smart gadgets.  At present two trends are battling for market dominance.  The first trend expands upon available credit card services (the lower hanging fruit) and focuses on increasing the number of possibilities where credit cards can be easily transacted.  Two emerging players include Square (www.square.com) and iZettle (www.izettle.com).  Both companies offer free credit card readers that attach to smart devices (i.e. Iphone and Android phones), hence, allowing both merchants and private individuals to transact anywhere and at anytime.  This space is already experiencing competition from Barclay Bank’s PingIt.  Unlike the other two companies mentioned, PingIt eliminates the need to use a physical credit card by offering its British clients the ability to transact using registered mobile  numbers.

The second trend supports contactless transactions where a buyer taps or waves a device that is registered with one or more credit or debit cards.  Based on RFID technology, a company such as LAKS, a UK-based watch manufacturer, offers an elegant wrist watch (www.watch2pay.com) with an imbedded chip that can be waved near a special reader for every day purchases.  The convenience of carrying an indiscriminate digital wallet on one’s wrist for purchases under $20 is both fashionable and practical. (It could also be just what wrist watch manufacturers like LAKS will need to revive their slumping industry.)  Mobil Corporation offers SpeedPass (www.speedpass.com) for gas and grocery purchases at participating Mobil stations, while AT&T and Verizon are developing ISIS (www.paywithisis.com), a grocery store application that registers a purchase at the time the buyer pulls the product off the shelf.

Both trends offer immediate benefits.  For cardholders, the time saved from waiting in line at a counter will encourage early adoption, while for merchants, the convenience of not being tied to a fixed cash register to close a sale can offer more possibilities.  Just the elimination of handling cash on a daily basis from the US Treasury through to the consumer amounts to huge savings.  A 2008 McKinsey Consulting study highlighted that Europe annually spends between 60-100 billion euros to process cash payments, which include bills and coins.  However, as money goes digital, the potential ripple effects caused by the ongoing convergence process of proven technologies could also become a nasty wake up call among elected officials.  Their recent inability to manage public funds effectively could trigger a public reaction to convert a seemingly harmless technological advancement into a global explosion of digital currencies.  Just think.  A similar phenomenon occurred when the number of TV channels exploded after the introduction of cable and satellite services.

Imagine if…
Imagine a world where corporations issued their own digital currency that could be accepted not only in their stores but also at their participating partner establishments.  For example, an individual might earn credits with Walmart (or even a list of other businesses) that would be directly deposited into their digital wallet from their monthly wages with perhaps a 10% limit.  Similar to credit card loyalty points, they might receive additional credits from competing businesses or gain special advantages when participating in a coupon-driven purchase program. Participating consumers with Walmart credits, for example, could spend these credits at Walmart or with any other strategic partners within Walmart’s group.

As the adoption process continues among buyers, a normal progression might be that clusters of related companies agree on accepting one common currency for the entire group.  Controls such as a $20 per transaction limit could help limit abuse. If a buyer did not have enough credits, they could easily exchange one currency for any other based on daily exchange rates governed by a realtime bid and ask system determined by other users.

Not farfetched…
Note that this vision of the emergence of corporate-supported currencies is not farfetched, since it combines elements from proven technologies and programs currently in use, including airline frequent flyer point systems, Skype’s low amount transaction policies, PayPal’s seamless exchange rates for international money transfers, and Google’s keyword bidding process.  When proven programs such as these converge, new ideas emerge that have a greater chance of succeeding.

The implications of a world with hundreds of possible currencies creates numerous opportunities for corporations looking to lower currency risk, share payroll expenses with participating partners, and introduce bonafide loyalty programs.  Less fortunate will be elected officials who will face tough challenges from having less control of the money supply and, possibly, their voting constituents.